EXHIBIT 3-A
TAC
RISK ASSESSMENT of 3 DESALS
2ND
DRAFT 5/21/2012
PART I: Cost data
needed before assessment is possible.
Some data is included, but more work is needed.
PART II: High priority
concerns
for
success of desal only.
Priority scale:
1=high
risk
2=medium risk
3=low risk
? = inadequate information
Make any other notations you find useful. This is a tool.
|
PART
I |
Cal
Am |
DeepWater |
Peoples |
|
E. 9000afy
COST & FINANCING |
9,000
afy |
9,000afy |
9,000afy |
|
1.
Capital costs (for
product water &
transmission to Cal
Am pick up in
Seaside) |
$260M |
*10,200afy size $139M |
*10,700 afy size $108.65M w/o solar |
|
2. Financing, carrying costs |
Mixed with portfolio |
Pub Act Bds @4-5.5%m 30 yrs, +SRF |
3.5%, 30 yrs |
|
3. Total cost to construct & deliver to Cal Am |
|
|
|
|
4. Desal cost/afy |
$5000? |
$1943afy |
$1922 |
|
5. O&M total costs/yr |
$12.76M |
|
$4M + $5.35M = $9.35M? |
|
5a. Energy alone |
$6.5M/yr mixed sources |
$3.9M to 6.1/yr At-the-fence discount |
$2.5M to 5M/yr solar option |
|
6. O&M Cost/afy |
|
|
|
|
7. Total annual cost/afy |
|
|
|
|
F. 5400afy
COST & FINANCING |
5400AFY |
5400AFY |
5400AFY |
|
1.
Capital costs (for product
water & transmission
to Cal Am pick
up in Seaside)
|
$213M |
|
$85.65M w/o solar |
|
2. Financing, carrying costs |
|
|
|
|
3. Total cost to construct & deliver to Cal Am |
|
|
|
|
4. Cost/afy |
|
|
$1436afy |
|
5.
O&M total costs/yr
|
$20.35M |
|
$2.5M + $3.24M = $5.74M ? |
|
5A Energy alone |
$4.65M |
|
$14M solar option |
|
6. O&M Cost/afy |
|
|
|
|
7. Total annual cost/afy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Assumptions re public bond financing |
SRF only |
|
3.5%, 30 yrs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PART
II |
Cal
Am |
DeepWater |
Peoples |
|
A. TECHNICAL |
|
|
|
|
1. Source water: rights |
Slant wells |
100 ft open ocean |
Surface open ocean |
|
2. Pre-treatment, water quality |
|
|
|
|
3. Discharge |
|
|
|
|
4. Proven technology |
|
|
|
|
5. Permits for technology |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. SCHEDULE |
|
|
|
|
1. EIR, full or less |
partial |
full |
full |
|
2.
Permits; difficulty
|
|
|
|
|
3. Litigation risks, potential |
|
|
|
|
4. Site control, easements |
None, unknown |
partial |
yes |
|
5. Date to deliver |
56 months, Jan 2017 |
55 months, Dec 2016 |
44 months, Jan 2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. COMMUNITY
CONCERNS |
|
|
|
|
1.
Public ownership |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
|
2. Governance structure |
none |
Wants JPA |
Wants city, agency or JPA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U:\staff\Board_Committees\WSP\2012\20120607\03\item3_exh3a.docx