TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE
ITEM:		ACTION ITEMS
2.	DISCUSS COMMON METHODOLOGY FOR LONG-TERM WATER NEEDS
Meeting Date:			June 7, 2005
From:			David A. Berger,
			General Manager
Prepared by:			Stephanie Pintar

SUMMARY: Over the past four months, the TAC has been meeting to agree on water factors to be applied to the General Plan build out information submitted to the District in December/January 2005 Exhibit 2-A. The jurisdictions were asked to provide the General Plan build out information to facilitate estimating long-term water needs for planning purposes. Factors for Single-Family Residential, Multi-Family Residential and Second Units have been discussed and consensus reached. As most jurisdictions had not provided information on second units, a breakout of secondary housing units was requested at the April 2005 TAC meeting. Jurisdictions were asked to provide the secondary unit information by the end of April. As of May 25, 2005, not all jurisdictions had responded to the request for secondary unit information and for housing element breakouts.

Using the information submitted to date, District staff has prepared preliminary draft water needs estimates for each jurisdiction and a summary of the estimates for discussion at the June 7, 2005 TAC meeting using the agreed-upon residential water factors, the commercial water needs submitted by each jurisdiction, a “contingency” of 20 percent, and water needs associated with “paying back” residential retrofit credits allowed by MPWMD Ordinances No. 70 and No. 90. Staff also adjusted the County’s water needs estimate to include a 50 percent increase in the factor to account for the larger lots that are found in the unincorporated areas. The preliminary draft long-term water needs estimates are attached as Exhibit 2-B. Long-term water needs based on the preliminary estimates are in the range of 4,246 acre-feet. This number is somewhat higher than the total projected water needs of 3,573 acre-feet submitted by the jurisdictions in 1999.

Finally, the Water Demand Committee has requested review of the long-term water needs estimate by the Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) prior to final consideration by Water Demand and the Board of Directors. A joint PAC/TAC meeting is being planned for late July 2005. Most jurisdictions reviewed the 2005 submittals with their governing bodies before the information was submitted to the District. The joint PAC/TAC meeting will provide one more opportunity for oversight.

DISCUSSION: The TAC should discuss the outcome of the preliminary estimates and provide direction to District staff. In compiling the information, staff noted the following points for discussion at the June 7, 2005 meeting:

• Not all jurisdictions submitted a breakout of second units, as discussed at the April TAC meeting.
• Commercial water needs are based on a number of factors and are not consistently calculated amongst the jurisdictions. Del Rey Oaks provided a general reference to its future commercial uses; Monterey County, Carmel and Sand City provided square-footage for commercial uses that are not specific to a use category; Monterey listed commercial Group I and II square-footage; the Airport District listed Group I and Group III (self-storage) uses; Pacific Grove listed Group I, Group II and hotel rooms; and Seaside provided a very specific list of commercial uses by type and other factors. For the preliminary estimate, staff used the numbers submitted by the jurisdictions. The TAC should make a recommendation on whether this method should stand or whether a universal factor should be applied.
• A 20 percent contingency has been applied to each jurisdiction’s needs. Not all jurisdictions had 20 percent as their contingency.

RECOMMENDATION: The TAC should discuss the draft water needs estimates, including the points above, and provide direction for further refinements to District staff. TAC members should determine if there is sufficient information to complete the long-term water needs estimate and to convene a PAC/TAC meeting to obtain final approval prior to review by the Water Demand Committee.

BACKGROUND: In 1999, the jurisdictions submitted their estimated long-term water needs to the District. At that time, the jurisdictions estimated that they would need an additional 3,573 acre-feet of water per year by 2020. It should be noted that the estimates provided by the jurisdictions were meant to be reconnaissance-level estimates based on current general plans or jurisdictional planning studies. The 1999 estimates did not follow a common methodology, as the 2005 estimate does. A summary of the 1999 estimates is attached as Exhibit 2-C.

EXHIBITS

2-A General Plan Build Out Information submitted to MPWMD

2-B Preliminary Estimated Long-Term Water Needs by Jurisdiction

2-C Summary of Estimated Future Jurisdictional Water Needs Within the District through Year 2020

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